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By Tom Simonite
The U.S. government is developing new computer weapons and driving a black market in “zero-day” bugs. The result could be a more dangerous Web for everyone.
The U.S. government is developing new computer weapons and driving a black market in “zero-day” bugs. The result could be a more dangerous Web for everyone.
One reason is that a freshly discovered weakness in a popular piece of software, known in the trade as a “zero-day” vulnerability because the software makers have had no time to develop a fix, can be cashed in for much more than a reputation boost and some free drinks at the bar. Information about such flaws can command prices in the hundreds of thousands of dollars from defense contractors, security agencies and governments.
This trade in zero-day exploits is poorly documented, but it is perhaps the most visible part of a new industry that in the years to come is likely to swallow growing portions of the U.S. national defense budget, reshape international relations, and perhaps make the Web less safe for everyone.
Zero-day exploits are valuable because they can be used to sneak software onto a computer system without detection by conventional computer security measures, such as antivirus packages or firewalls. Criminals might do that to intercept credit card numbers. An intelligence agency or military force might steal diplomatic communications or even shut down a power plant.
It became clear that this type of assault would define a new era in warfare in 2010, when security researchers discovered a piece of malicious software, or malware, known as Stuxnet. Now widely believed to have been a project of U.S. and Israeli intelligence (U.S. officials have yet to publicly acknowledge a role but have done so anonymously to the New York Times and NPR), Stuxnet was carefully designed to infect multiple systems needed to access and control industrial equipment used in Iran’s nuclear program. The payload was clearly the work of a group with access to government-scale resources and intelligence, but it was made possible by four zero-day exploits for Windows that allowed it to silently infect target computers. That so many precious zero-days were used at once was just one of Stuxnet’s many striking features.
Since then, more Stuxnet-like malware has been uncovered, and it’s involved even more complex techniques (see “The Antivirus Era Is Over”). It is likely that even more have been deployed but escaped public notice. Meanwhile, governments and companies in the United States and around the world have begun paying more and more for the exploits needed to make such weapons work, says Christopher Soghoian, a principal technologist at the American Civil Liberties Union.
“On the one hand the government is freaking out about cyber-security, and on the other the U.S. is participating in a global market in vulnerabilities and pushing up the prices,” says Soghoian, who says he has spoken with people involved in the trade and that prices range from the thousands to the hundreds of thousands. Even civilian law-enforcement agencies pay for zero-days, Soghoian says, in order to sneak spy software onto suspects’ computers or mobile phones.
Exploits for mobile operating systems are particularly valued, says Soghoian, because unlike desktop computers, mobile systems are rarely updated. Apple sends updates to iPhone software a few times a year, meaning that a given flaw could be exploited for a long time. Sometimes the discoverer of a zero-day vulnerability receives a monthly payment as long as a flaw remains undiscovered. “As long as Apple or Microsoft has not fixed it you get paid,” says Soghioan.
No law directly regulates the sale of zero-days in the United States or elsewhere, so some traders pursue it quite openly. A Bangkok, Thailand-based security researcher who goes by the name “the Grugq” has spoken to the press about negotiating deals worth hundreds of thousands of dollars with government buyers from the United States and western Europe. In a discussion on Twitter last month, in which he was called an “arms dealer,” he tweeted that “exploits are not weapons,” and said that “an exploit is a component of a toolchain … the team that produces & maintains the toolchain is the weapon.”
The Grugq contacted MIT Technology Review to state that he has made no “public statement about exploit sales since the Forbes article.”
Some small companies are similarly up-front about their involvement in the trade. The French security company VUPEN states on its website that it “provides government-grade exploits specifically designed for the Intelligence community and national security agencies to help them achieve their offensive cyber security and lawful intercept missions.” Last year, employees of the company publicly demonstrated a zero-day flaw that compromised Google’s Chrome browser, but they turned down Google’s offer of a $60,000 reward if they would share how it worked. What happened to the exploit is unknown.
No U.S. government agency has gone on the record as saying that it buys zero-days. But U.S. defense agencies and companies have begun to publicly acknowledge that they intend to launch as well as defend against cyberattacks, a stance that will require new ways to penetrate enemy computers.
General Keith Alexander, director of the National Security Agency and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, told a symposium in Washington last October that the United States is prepared to do more than just block computer attacks. “Part of our defense has to consider offensive measures,” he said, making him one of the most senior officials to admit that the government will make use of malware. Earlier in 2012 the U.S. Air Force invited proposals for developing “Cyberspace Warfare Attack capabilities” that could “destroy, deny, degrade, disrupt, deceive, corrupt, or usurp the adversaries [sic] ability to use the cyberspace domain for his advantage.” And in November, Regina Dugan, the head of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivered another clear signal about the direction U.S. defense technology is heading. “In the coming years we will focus an increasing portion of our cyber research on the investigation of offensive capabilities to address military-specific needs,” she said, announcing that the agency expected to expand cyber-security research from 8 percent of its budget to 12 percent.
Defense analysts say one reason for the shift is that talking about offense introduces an element of deterrence, an established strategy for nuclear and conventional conflicts. Up to now, U.S. politicians and defense chiefs have talked mostly about the country’s vulnerability to digital attacks. Last fall, for example, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned frankly that U.S. infrastructure was being targeted by overseas attackers and that a “digital Pearl Harbor” could result (see “U.S. Power Grids, Water Plants a Hacking Target”).
Major defense contractors are less forthcoming about their role in making software to attack enemies of the U.S. government, but they are evidently rushing to embrace the opportunity. “It’s a growing area of the defense business at the same time that the rest of the defense business is shrinking,” says Peter Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “They’ve identified two growth areas: drones and cyber.”Major defense contractors are less forthcoming about their role in making software to attack enemies of the U.S. government, but they are evidently rushing to embrace the opportunity. “It’s a growing area of the defense business at the same time that the rest of the defense business is shrinking,” says Peter Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “They’ve identified two growth areas: drones and cyber.”
Large contractors are hiring many people with computer security skills, and some job openings make it clear there are opportunities to play more than just defense. Last year, Northrop Grumman posted ads seeking people to “plan, execute and assess an Offensive Cyberspace Operation (OCO) mission,” and many current positions at Northrop ask for “hands-on experience of offensive cyber operations.” Raytheon prefaces its ads for security-related jobs with language designed to appeal to stereotypical computer hackers: “Surfboards, pirate flags, and DEFCON black badges decorate our offices, and our Nerf collection dwarfs that of most toy stores. Our research and development projects cover the spectrum of offensive and defensive security technologies.”
The new focus of America’s military and defense contractors may concern some taxpayers. As more public dollars are spent researching new ways to attack computer systems, some of that money will go to people like The Grugq to discover fresh zero-day vulnerabilities. And an escalating cycle of competition between U.S and overseas government agencies and contractors could make the world more dangerous for computer users everywhere.
“Every country makes weapons: unfortunately, cyberspace is like that too,” says Sujeet Shenoi, who leads the U.S.-government-sponsored Cyber Corps Program at the University of Tulsa. His program trains students for government jobs defending against attacks, but he fears that defense contractors, also eager to recruit these students, are pushing the idea of offense too hard. Developing powerful malware introduces the dangerous temptation to use it, says Shenoi, who fears the consequences of active strikes against infrastructure. “I think maybe the civilian courts ought to get together and bar these kinds of attacks,” he says.
The ease with which perpetrators of a computer attack can hide their tracks also raises the risk that such weapons will be used, Shenoi points out. Worse, even if an attack using malware is unsuccessful, there’s a strong chance that a copy will remain somewhere on the victim’s system—by accident or design—or accidentally find its way onto computer systems not targeted at all, as Stuxnet did. Some security firms have already identified criminal malware that uses methods first seen in Stuxnet (see “Stuxnet Tricks Copied by Criminals”).
“The parallel is dropping the atomic bomb but also leaflets with the design of it,” says Singer. He estimates that around 100 countries already have cyber-war units of some kind, and around 20 have formidable capabilities: “There’s a lot of people playing this game.”
Updated 2.13.2013 to include a response from The Grugq.
Source: Technologyreview.
It became clear that this type of assault would define a new era in warfare in 2010, when security researchers discovered a piece of malicious software, or malware, known as Stuxnet. Now widely believed to have been a project of U.S. and Israeli intelligence (U.S. officials have yet to publicly acknowledge a role but have done so anonymously to the New York Times and NPR), Stuxnet was carefully designed to infect multiple systems needed to access and control industrial equipment used in Iran’s nuclear program. The payload was clearly the work of a group with access to government-scale resources and intelligence, but it was made possible by four zero-day exploits for Windows that allowed it to silently infect target computers. That so many precious zero-days were used at once was just one of Stuxnet’s many striking features.
Since then, more Stuxnet-like malware has been uncovered, and it’s involved even more complex techniques (see “The Antivirus Era Is Over”). It is likely that even more have been deployed but escaped public notice. Meanwhile, governments and companies in the United States and around the world have begun paying more and more for the exploits needed to make such weapons work, says Christopher Soghoian, a principal technologist at the American Civil Liberties Union.
“On the one hand the government is freaking out about cyber-security, and on the other the U.S. is participating in a global market in vulnerabilities and pushing up the prices,” says Soghoian, who says he has spoken with people involved in the trade and that prices range from the thousands to the hundreds of thousands. Even civilian law-enforcement agencies pay for zero-days, Soghoian says, in order to sneak spy software onto suspects’ computers or mobile phones.
Exploits for mobile operating systems are particularly valued, says Soghoian, because unlike desktop computers, mobile systems are rarely updated. Apple sends updates to iPhone software a few times a year, meaning that a given flaw could be exploited for a long time. Sometimes the discoverer of a zero-day vulnerability receives a monthly payment as long as a flaw remains undiscovered. “As long as Apple or Microsoft has not fixed it you get paid,” says Soghioan.
No law directly regulates the sale of zero-days in the United States or elsewhere, so some traders pursue it quite openly. A Bangkok, Thailand-based security researcher who goes by the name “the Grugq” has spoken to the press about negotiating deals worth hundreds of thousands of dollars with government buyers from the United States and western Europe. In a discussion on Twitter last month, in which he was called an “arms dealer,” he tweeted that “exploits are not weapons,” and said that “an exploit is a component of a toolchain … the team that produces & maintains the toolchain is the weapon.”
The Grugq contacted MIT Technology Review to state that he has made no “public statement about exploit sales since the Forbes article.”
Some small companies are similarly up-front about their involvement in the trade. The French security company VUPEN states on its website that it “provides government-grade exploits specifically designed for the Intelligence community and national security agencies to help them achieve their offensive cyber security and lawful intercept missions.” Last year, employees of the company publicly demonstrated a zero-day flaw that compromised Google’s Chrome browser, but they turned down Google’s offer of a $60,000 reward if they would share how it worked. What happened to the exploit is unknown.
No U.S. government agency has gone on the record as saying that it buys zero-days. But U.S. defense agencies and companies have begun to publicly acknowledge that they intend to launch as well as defend against cyberattacks, a stance that will require new ways to penetrate enemy computers.
General Keith Alexander, director of the National Security Agency and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, told a symposium in Washington last October that the United States is prepared to do more than just block computer attacks. “Part of our defense has to consider offensive measures,” he said, making him one of the most senior officials to admit that the government will make use of malware. Earlier in 2012 the U.S. Air Force invited proposals for developing “Cyberspace Warfare Attack capabilities” that could “destroy, deny, degrade, disrupt, deceive, corrupt, or usurp the adversaries [sic] ability to use the cyberspace domain for his advantage.” And in November, Regina Dugan, the head of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivered another clear signal about the direction U.S. defense technology is heading. “In the coming years we will focus an increasing portion of our cyber research on the investigation of offensive capabilities to address military-specific needs,” she said, announcing that the agency expected to expand cyber-security research from 8 percent of its budget to 12 percent.
Defense analysts say one reason for the shift is that talking about offense introduces an element of deterrence, an established strategy for nuclear and conventional conflicts. Up to now, U.S. politicians and defense chiefs have talked mostly about the country’s vulnerability to digital attacks. Last fall, for example, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned frankly that U.S. infrastructure was being targeted by overseas attackers and that a “digital Pearl Harbor” could result (see “U.S. Power Grids, Water Plants a Hacking Target”).
Major defense contractors are less forthcoming about their role in making software to attack enemies of the U.S. government, but they are evidently rushing to embrace the opportunity. “It’s a growing area of the defense business at the same time that the rest of the defense business is shrinking,” says Peter Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “They’ve identified two growth areas: drones and cyber.”Major defense contractors are less forthcoming about their role in making software to attack enemies of the U.S. government, but they are evidently rushing to embrace the opportunity. “It’s a growing area of the defense business at the same time that the rest of the defense business is shrinking,” says Peter Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “They’ve identified two growth areas: drones and cyber.”
Large contractors are hiring many people with computer security skills, and some job openings make it clear there are opportunities to play more than just defense. Last year, Northrop Grumman posted ads seeking people to “plan, execute and assess an Offensive Cyberspace Operation (OCO) mission,” and many current positions at Northrop ask for “hands-on experience of offensive cyber operations.” Raytheon prefaces its ads for security-related jobs with language designed to appeal to stereotypical computer hackers: “Surfboards, pirate flags, and DEFCON black badges decorate our offices, and our Nerf collection dwarfs that of most toy stores. Our research and development projects cover the spectrum of offensive and defensive security technologies.”
The new focus of America’s military and defense contractors may concern some taxpayers. As more public dollars are spent researching new ways to attack computer systems, some of that money will go to people like The Grugq to discover fresh zero-day vulnerabilities. And an escalating cycle of competition between U.S and overseas government agencies and contractors could make the world more dangerous for computer users everywhere.
“Every country makes weapons: unfortunately, cyberspace is like that too,” says Sujeet Shenoi, who leads the U.S.-government-sponsored Cyber Corps Program at the University of Tulsa. His program trains students for government jobs defending against attacks, but he fears that defense contractors, also eager to recruit these students, are pushing the idea of offense too hard. Developing powerful malware introduces the dangerous temptation to use it, says Shenoi, who fears the consequences of active strikes against infrastructure. “I think maybe the civilian courts ought to get together and bar these kinds of attacks,” he says.
The ease with which perpetrators of a computer attack can hide their tracks also raises the risk that such weapons will be used, Shenoi points out. Worse, even if an attack using malware is unsuccessful, there’s a strong chance that a copy will remain somewhere on the victim’s system—by accident or design—or accidentally find its way onto computer systems not targeted at all, as Stuxnet did. Some security firms have already identified criminal malware that uses methods first seen in Stuxnet (see “Stuxnet Tricks Copied by Criminals”).
“The parallel is dropping the atomic bomb but also leaflets with the design of it,” says Singer. He estimates that around 100 countries already have cyber-war units of some kind, and around 20 have formidable capabilities: “There’s a lot of people playing this game.”
Updated 2.13.2013 to include a response from The Grugq.
Source: Technologyreview.
This shows a concept tram.
Photo Credit: KAIST)
Daejeon, Republic of Korea, 13 February 2013—The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) and the Korea Railroad Research Institute (KRRI) have developed a wireless power transfer technology that can be applied to high capacity transportation systems such as railways, harbor freight, and airport transportation and logistics. The technology supplies 60 kHz and 180 kW of power remotely to transport vehicles at a stable, constant rate.
KAIST and KRRI today successfully showcased the wireless power transfer technology to the public by testing it on the railroad tracks at Osong Station in Korea. Originally, this technology was developed as part of an electric vehicle system introduced by KAIST in 2011 known as the On-line Electric Vehicle (OLEV).
OLEV does not need to be parked at a charging station to have a fully powered battery. It gets charged while running, idling, and parking, enabling a reduction in size of the reserve battery down to one-fifth of the battery on board a regular electric car. The initial models of OLEV, a bus and a tram, receive 20 kHz and 100 kW power at an 85% transmission efficiency rate while maintaining a 20cm air gap between the underbody of vehicle and the road surface. OLEV complies with the national and international standards of 62.5 mG, a safety net for electromagnetic fields. In July 2013, for the first time since its development, OLEV will run on a regular road, an inner city route in the city of Gumi, requiring 40 minutes of driving each way.
This shows the shaped magnetic field in resonance.
(Photo Credit: KAIST)
Today's technology demonstration offers further support that OLEV can be utilized for large-scale systems. Professor Dong-Ho Cho, Director of Center for Wireless Power Transfer Technology Business Development at KAIST, explained the recent improvements to OLEV:
"We have greatly improved the OLEV technology from the early development stage by increasing its power transmission density by more than three times. The size and weight of the power pickup modules have been reduced as well. We were able to cut down the production costs for major OLEV components, the power supply, and the pickup system, and in turn, OLEV is one step closer to being commercialized."
If trains receive power wirelessly, the costs of railway wear and tear will be dramatically reduced. There will be no power rails, including electrical poles, required for the establishment of a railway system, and accordingly, lesser space will be needed. Tunnels will be built on a smaller scale, lowering construction costs. In addition, it will be helpful to overcome major obstacles that discourage the construction of high speed railway systems such as noise levels and problems in connecting pantograph and power rails.
KAIST and KRRI plan to apply the wireless power transfer technology to trams in May and high speed trains in September.
Source: Sciencecodex
The European Union has been expanded
By this date, the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations.** This follows several years of negotiations in order to bring these countries in line with the rest of the Union, in terms of economics and law.* It comes at a time of severe economic decay for Europe, along with the rest of the world in general.
By this date, the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations.** This follows several years of negotiations in order to bring these countries in line with the rest of the Union, in terms of economics and law.* It comes at a time of severe economic decay for Europe, along with the rest of the world in general.
The process a country must undergo in order to join the European Union may take several years, often involving a long series of debates over the economic and political costs versus benefits. In order to become a recommended candidate, a country must be located in Europe and must be a stable, humane and democratic nation. According to the Copenhagen Criteria, a candidate must have a democratic government with respect for human rights and minorities, a functioning and secure market economy, as well as the ability to take on the obligations of membership concerning political, monetary and economic union.
Iceland was among the first to enter the Union. Prior to the 2008 economic crisis, public support for joining was low, with many viewing it as unnecessary. At the time, Iceland was only a member of the European Economic Area. Following the global economic downturn of 2008, the Icelandic economy crashed, with three of the country's largest banks failing and unemployment rates and debt levels spiking.* Because of its well-established democracy and market economy, Iceland was made a priority in regards to the next EU expansion.* Although some issues persisted - such as whale hunting, fishing and agriculture* - it was eventually welcomed into the EU.
Around the same time, Macedonia succeeded in joining too. This came only after tensions with its neighbour Greece were finally resolved. Greece had blocked Macedonia's accession for some time, over an issue concerning the country's title.* The country had also been criticised for its treatment of the Albanian minority, something it was required to immediately reform. As with most new members, negotiations over economic issues were also required upon Macedonia's adoption of the euro.
Croatia was another early addition to the Union, entering in mid-2013.* It became the second ex-Yugoslav country to join after Slovenia. Croatia was also made a priority, with heavy support coming from its neighbour Hungary. Before its accession, Croatia was required to settle its ongoing border dispute with Slovenia, which had for ten months blocked the country's EU negotiation. There were also several issues regarding cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia over prosecuting crimes against humanity. Crackdowns on government corruption had to be carried out too. Regarding the global financial crisis, Croatia had fared relatively well, though large portions of its economy were still under direct control of the government, something which had to change in order to meet the EU's stringent requirements. By 2017, it is also dealing with a high level of international debt, showing that Croatia was just slower to be affected by the crisis. Complex negotiations were required once the euro was introduced as the country's currency.
In a similar situation was Bosnia and Herzegovina, also located in the Balkan Peninsula. The country joined in 2015,*shortly after joining NATO.* One of its largest concerns was the ongoing ethnic quarrels that were remnants of the Bosnian War. In fact, the EU had maintained a peacekeeping force in the country for over a decade. For some time, the nation had also received stabilising loans from the EU. Corruption and organised crime were major problems too. Before joining the EU, Bosnia was forced to make drastic changes to its domestic and political policies. By 2017, however, the country has made significant strides towards becoming a fully developed country. Although it still faces challenges, these are more easily handled now through the advantages of EU membership.
The same year that Bosnia and Herzegovina joined, both Albania and Montenegro entered the European Union and the eurozone. Albania was, like Bosnia, plagued by organised crime and corruption.* Alongside this, it was home to significant ethnic discrimination - a symptom of residual tension left over from past racial and religious conflicts. With regards to its economy, Albania had to overcome the remnants of communism and establish a truly free market system in order to comply with the EU's standards. This meant going through a period of reforms to the government, justice system and media in the early 2010s, inhibiting ethnic bias and political disorder.
Montenegro was in a similar position, itself being a haven for trafficking and money laundering. It had only recently moved to a market economy, having become independent in 2006. Before its accession, it was required to increase protection of freedom of expression, strengthen diplomatic relations with Serbia and comply with other membership criteria. The country made good progress, however,* and was later admitted. An important milestone on its path to EU membership was reached towards the end of 2009, when its citizens were granted the right to visa-free travel within the Schengen zone.
The last country to join at this time was Serbia. For a prolonged period, Serbia's progress towards membership had remained sluggish, made worse by the long history of ethnic conflict between it and certain other EU candidates. Many members were wary of letting Serbia join and applied strict conditions for it to do so - including justice over the atrocities committed by certain Serbs in the Bosnian War. Despite this, appeals to the West eventually pushed Serbia's application forward.* A number of barriers were removed during the accession process.* Of the many problems facing Serbia, unemployment and a high trade deficit were the most pressing. A series of financial reforms, many of which would continue through 2017, were begun. Serbia was also forced to compromise on the issue of Kosovo's independence, which had also begun to apply for EU membership.*
Although a long-time candidate, Turkey is still a few years away from gaining full EU membership. Despite bringing a huge population and strong economy to the table, lack of compliance with EU laws and a conflict over Cyprus have slowed its progress considerably.
These seven countries become some of the last new members to enter into the EU. Worsening economic conditions - born from the sovereign debt crisis - have made the Union increasingly cautious in allowing new economies to join. The euro remains weak throughout this period, with certain members trapped in a state of perpetual financial chaos. Of the newest members, most have stabilised, but true growth and socio-economic progress are still some way off.
As of 2017, the EU has a total of 34 member states and a population of more than half a billion. It remains a leading world power for now - but with ongoing economic turmoil that has yet to be resolved.
Worsening crisis in Yemen
At the turn of the 21st century, Yemen was already the poorest and least developed nation in the Arab world. Nearly 45% of its citizens were living below the poverty line, unemployment was running at 35% and its literacy rate was just 58%. It had dwindling natural resources and a ballooning population. Its economy was heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, which accounted for almost 75% of government revenues and 90% of foreign exchange earnings.
At the turn of the 21st century, Yemen was already the poorest and least developed nation in the Arab world. Nearly 45% of its citizens were living below the poverty line, unemployment was running at 35% and its literacy rate was just 58%. It had dwindling natural resources and a ballooning population. Its economy was heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, which accounted for almost 75% of government revenues and 90% of foreign exchange earnings.
Yemen reached peak oil production in 2003 and witnessed a steady decline thereafter. In 2011, a popular uprising erupted due to worsening economic conditions, rising unemployment and government corruption. This was sparked by simultaneous protests in other Middle Eastern countries.
Over the next few years, the situation continued to deteriorate. Power blackouts and food shortages became a daily norm, while motorists were forced to queue their vehicles for hours at petrol stations. The country had no apparent way of transitioning to a post-carbon economy. Its neighbour, Saudi Arabia, attempted to stabilise the political and economic situation by donating oil. By the middle of the decade, however, Saudi Arabia itself was experiencing shortfalls, meaning it could no longer offer this support. Yemen's push into the gas sector had also failed to revive its economy significantly.
Alongside this, a new and even greater threat was emerging. Yemen's groundwater levels had fallen sharply in recent decades. Around the capital, Sana'a, borehole drilling was now reaching down to water that fell more than 8,000 years ago, with groundwater levels decreasing by 4-6 metres a year. Additional wells and water mains were desperately needed to service the region, but these for the most part had been lost among the nation's various other problems. Yemen had been battling Shiite Muslim rebels in the north and a separatist movement in the south, whilst contending with a resurgence of Al Qaeda and the scourge of piracy in the Gulf of Aden.
By 2017, a calamity is unfolding. Oil and gas reserves have now dwindled to zero* and Sana'a has become the first capital city in the world to completely run out of water.* The situation has been made worse by rising fuel prices. Trucks bringing supplies from outside are no longer able to make up the shortfall - resulting in widespread looting, rioting and violence. This soon gives way to starvation, a mass exodus of refugees and a rapid decline in the country's population which continues into the following decade. The state collapses into anarchy, with a zone of lawlessness expanding into Saudi Arabia and the Horn of Africa.
The outside world watches, powerless, as this tragedy unfolds. Though assistance is offered by other countries, including some military intervention, it cannot prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Yemen now faces a very uncertain future, threatening stability across the region.
2017: Yemen's water crisis and oil shortages have left the country in chaos.
China establishes the largest megacity in the world
By now, China has merged nine of its cities into one, creating the largest metropolitan area on the planet. This new megacity has a population of 42 million - over 7 million greater than Tokyo, the previous record holder.
By now, China has merged nine of its cities into one, creating the largest metropolitan area on the planet. This new megacity has a population of 42 million - over 7 million greater than Tokyo, the previous record holder.
The cities being merged include Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the second and third largest cities in China with populations of 11.7 million and 8.9 million, respectively. This region covers much of China's manufacturing heartland, accounting for nearly a tenth of the Chinese economy.
Around 150 major infrastructure projects have meshed the transport, energy, water and telecommunications networks of these nine cities together, at a cost of some 2 trillion yuan ($304 billion). An express railway line connects the hub with nearby Hong Kong.*
By the end of the decade, even larger megacities are emerging, with city zones of up to 100 million people.
The world's first kilometre-high skyscraper
After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.* Standing at over 1,000m (3,280 ft) high, this takes the title of world's tallest building from the previous record holder - Burj Khalifa in Dubai, which stands at 828m (2,717 ft).
After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.* Standing at over 1,000m (3,280 ft) high, this takes the title of world's tallest building from the previous record holder - Burj Khalifa in Dubai, which stands at 828m (2,717 ft).
The tower is designed by Adrian Smith of Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture, the firm behind the Burj Khalifa, and is developed by Emaar Properties. The project costs around $1.23 billion, actually less than it cost to build the Burj Khalifa. The skyscraper has over 200 floors, a world first, along with 59 elevators. It contains some 5.7 million square feet of retail, residential, office and hotel space and hosts the world's highest observation deck.*
Reusing the successful Y-shaped footprint of the Burj Khalifa allowed construction to reach higher than ever before. In order to handle the tremendous amount of weight involved, new concrete formulas needed to be devised. As the building rose, lighter and lighter materials were used. The sloping design, along with massive counterweights placed strategically throughout the tower, help to offset the strong winds present at such heights, which can often reach over 120 mph.*
Kingdom Tower becomes the centerpiece of the $20 billion "Kingdom City" development that essentially becomes an entirely new district of Jeddah. Public opinion is highly polarised. Many view it as a positive symbol of the power and wealth of Saudi Arabia. Others see it as a white elephant, believing it will ultimately prove a financial loss, putting a further burden on the economy. As the global depression worsens, the latter view becomes that of the majority, who see it as a perfect example of imbalanced wealth and power. This is in light of the growing number of Saudis living in poverty at this time.
The first Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) platform begins operations
Due to the remoteness of many deepwater natural gas resources, large-scale exploitation of these areas has been next to impossible. A new project, however, undertaken by Royal Dutch Shell, seeks to overcome these barriers. The Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) platform, as it is called, begins operations this year off the coast of Northern Australia over Shell's Prelude natural gas field.
Due to the remoteness of many deepwater natural gas resources, large-scale exploitation of these areas has been next to impossible. A new project, however, undertaken by Royal Dutch Shell, seeks to overcome these barriers. The Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) platform, as it is called, begins operations this year off the coast of Northern Australia over Shell's Prelude natural gas field.
Essentially the world's largest "ship," the FLNG is anchored over several well heads in the isolated field, in water around 250 meters deep. It pumps up natural gas continuously, storing it within several massive tanks, chilled at -162°C which compresses its volume by 600 times. Every week, a gas tanker arrives to off-load the FLNG's stores. When fully loaded, the ship contains 600,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas. It produces at least 5.3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquids: 3.6 mtpa of LNG, 1.3 mtpa of condensate and 0.4 mtpa of LPG. It is 488 metres long – equivalent to four soccer fields laid end to end.*
The facility is operated by a crew of 120 and costs around $10 billion to build. This mega-project capitalises on the growing demand and prices of natural gas, particularly in China. Most of the advantage of a floating gas platform has to do with the lack of permanent infrastructure. Not only is it easy to move when a field runs dry (as Prelude will do in 25 years), but it is more capable of dealing with the dangerous cyclones often present in the area.
The project does have some detractors however. Environmentalists have expressed concerns over the damage the FLNG could do to the ecosystem. Despite these issues, several more such platforms are constructed over the following decades.*
The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed
The controversial Nabucco pipeline commences operations this year.* This project had been in the planning stages since 2002 and was backed by the United States and the European Union, but financial issues and a lack of definite supply contracts caused continual delays. As a result of these problems, construction did not begin until 2013, after it became certain enough gas would be available to turn a profit.
The controversial Nabucco pipeline commences operations this year.* This project had been in the planning stages since 2002 and was backed by the United States and the European Union, but financial issues and a lack of definite supply contracts caused continual delays. As a result of these problems, construction did not begin until 2013, after it became certain enough gas would be available to turn a profit.
The pipeline is over 2,500 miles long. It begins in eastern Turkey and then travels up through the Balkans, through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and finally into Austria. The main supply originates from Iraq, as well as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, both of which have opened several new fields in recent years. Once fully operational in 2017, over 31 billion cubic meters of natural gas begin to pass along the pipeline. This gives Western Europe more direct access to the energy resources of the Middle East and Caspian Sea, as well as helping to lessen the continent's dependence on Russia. In a similar manner to the new floating liquefied natural gas platform design, the Nabucco pipeline supports the growing demand for natural gas, primarily in the West.
The controversy surrounding the project is mainly political and economic. Concerns were raised over whether the actual amount of gas passing through the pipeline would make up for the high cost of construction (almost €15bn). Several countries believed that Nabucco would only benefit a few European nations. Indeed, the initial flow is less than optimal, and it will be several more years before the project can be called economically worthwhile.
India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam
Yet another energy project making the headlines this year is the Dibang Dam, located in northeast India. At 288m, this becomes the tallest concrete gravity dam in the world. It has a volume of 16.5 million cubic metres and can generate 3,000 MW of electric power.*
Yet another energy project making the headlines this year is the Dibang Dam, located in northeast India. At 288m, this becomes the tallest concrete gravity dam in the world. It has a volume of 16.5 million cubic metres and can generate 3,000 MW of electric power.*
The project is not without controversy, however. There has been strong local opposition, due to the relocation of indigenous tribal communities, environmental damage, and questions being raised about its safety along with that of other nearby dams.* Over 100 are being constructed in Arunachal Pradesh during this time - 17 in the Dibang Valley - as hydroelectric power gains momentum.*
Tensions have also been raised with China, which is building dams of its own in the region, threatening to reduce the flow of water to India's territory.*
The M1A3 Abrams tank enters the battlefield
The original M1 battle tank - a third generation vehicle - was introduced to the U.S. Army in 1980. Since then, variants of the tank, primarily the M1A1 and M1A2, have seen extensive use in battle. They first entered combat in Operation: Desert Storm, during the Persian Gulf War, and have been used in every American military conflict since. They have also become the principal tank of the Saudi Arabian, Egyptian, Kuwaiti and Australian armies, as well as the Army of Iraq following arms deals made with the United States.
The original M1 battle tank - a third generation vehicle - was introduced to the U.S. Army in 1980. Since then, variants of the tank, primarily the M1A1 and M1A2, have seen extensive use in battle. They first entered combat in Operation: Desert Storm, during the Persian Gulf War, and have been used in every American military conflict since. They have also become the principal tank of the Saudi Arabian, Egyptian, Kuwaiti and Australian armies, as well as the Army of Iraq following arms deals made with the United States.
The newest generation of the M1 - the M1A3 - is fielded this year.* The first prototypes were completed in 2014. Now, in 2017, they are entering the battlefield, primarily in the remaining American conflicts in the Middle East (which have dragged on in some areas for longer than expected).*
Various design improvements have been made. These include the latest in armour and ballistic shielding, of course, especially the underbelly armour, as well as hi-tech computer networking. The tank has been reduced in weight by almost one-fifth, providing more capability for crossing bridges. Its ammunition has also been upgraded, with new ultra-accurate computer guided missiles.*
This comes at a difficult financial time for the Marine Corps, which is forced to cut back their tank fleet and partner with the Army concerning the M1A3. Over the next few decades, the M1A3 will remain the favourite battle tank of the US and others.*
The remaining JFK files are released
The Assassination Records Review Board was created as a result of an act passed by the US Congress in 1992, entitled the "President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act". This Act mandated the gathering and release of all government records relating to the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
The Assassination Records Review Board was created as a result of an act passed by the US Congress in 1992, entitled the "President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act". This Act mandated the gathering and release of all government records relating to the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
The Act was passed following the public outcry about the assassination, after the 1991 premiere of Oliver Stone's film JFK, which proposed Kennedy assassination theories involving plots to kill the President. The ARRB collected evidence starting in 1992, then produced a final report in 1998.
The ARRB was not commissioned to determine why or by whom the murder was committed. Its purpose was simply to release documents to the public, in order for the public to draw its own conclusions. From 1992 until 1998, 60,000 documents were gathered and unsealed, consisting of more than 4 million pages. All remaining documents are released by 2017.*
A handbill circulated on 21 November 1963, in Dallas, one day before the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
Total solar eclipse in the USA
On August 21st of this year, a total eclipse occurs in the United States - the first visible from the US since 1991 (just from part of Hawaii), and the first visible from the contiguous US since 1979.
On August 21st of this year, a total eclipse occurs in the United States - the first visible from the US since 1991 (just from part of Hawaii), and the first visible from the contiguous US since 1979.
Totality occurs along a path curving from Oregon to South Carolina, and lasts for roughly 2 minutes and 40 seconds. The location and time of "greatest eclipse" is on the western edge of Christian County, Kentucky at 36.97 degrees North and 87.65 degrees West, occurring at 18:25 UTC.
Credit: NASA
China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon
Following the success of its first lunar lander in 2013, China attempts a more ambitious sample return mission.*Launched in 2017, this succeeds in obtaining about 2 kg (4 lb) of moon rock and bringing it back to Earth for study.
Following the success of its first lunar lander in 2013, China attempts a more ambitious sample return mission.*Launched in 2017, this succeeds in obtaining about 2 kg (4 lb) of moon rock and bringing it back to Earth for study.
The robot deployed on the surface has a mission life of three months. It can choose its own routes, avoid obstacles and perform experiments with a mechanical arm. It comes equipped with a suite of sensors including cameras, X-ray and infrared spectrometers and a ground-penetrating radar. It has solar panels and a supplementary power source for night work in the form of a plutonium-238 nuclear battery - the same type of radioisotope thermoelectric generator system (RTG) installed on NASA's Mars Science Laboratory.
China has big plans for beyond 2017. The country intends to build its own space station by 2020,* send humans to the Moon by 2025* and construct a lunar base shortly thereafter.*
The first test flight of NASA's Space Launch System
The Space Launch System, or SLS, is a Shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle designed by NASA, following the cancellation of the Constellation Program, to replace the Space Shuttle. The NASA Authorization Act of 2010 envisioned the transformation of the Ares I and Ares V vehicle designs into a single launch vehicle usable for both crew and cargo. It would be upgraded over time with more powerful versions.
The Space Launch System, or SLS, is a Shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle designed by NASA, following the cancellation of the Constellation Program, to replace the Space Shuttle. The NASA Authorization Act of 2010 envisioned the transformation of the Ares I and Ares V vehicle designs into a single launch vehicle usable for both crew and cargo. It would be upgraded over time with more powerful versions.
The SLS will carry the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, as well as important cargo, equipment and experiments to Earth's orbit and destinations beyond. Additionally, it will serve as a backup for commercial and international partner transportation services to the International Space Station. It could also be used on missions to repair high-value telecom satellites, at orbits 36,000km above the Earth which were previously inaccessible to astronauts.*
The rocket design incorporates technology from the Space Shuttle and Constellation Programs - taking advantage of proven hardware and cutting-edge tooling and manufacturing technology that greatly reduces development and operations costs. It is powered by a liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propulsion system, including the RS-25D/E from the Space Shuttle Program for the core stage and the J-2X engine for the upper stage.*
It has an initial lift capacity of 70 metric tons - nearly three times that of the Space Shuttle. The first unmanned developmental test flight takes place in 2017, with a manned trip around the Moon scheduled for 2021. Its payload will evolve as more advanced versions are developed; it is ultimately hoped to reach 130 tons in the early 2030s.**This will enable the first manned missions to Mars.**
The Cheops satellite is deployed to study exoplanets
In 2017, the European Space Agency (ESA) launches a new satellite to study exoplanets. Its focus of study is nearby star systems already known to host planets. The small CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite, called Cheops, operates in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit at an altitude of 500 miles (800 km) and has a mission lifetime of around 3.5 years. It is powerful and precise enough to form accurate measurements of a planet's radius, as well as determining the likely density and internal structure.* The mission also provides unique targets for more detailed studies of exoplanet atmospheres by the next generation of telescopes now being built, such as the ground-basedEuropean Extremely Large Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope.
In 2017, the European Space Agency (ESA) launches a new satellite to study exoplanets. Its focus of study is nearby star systems already known to host planets. The small CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite, called Cheops, operates in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit at an altitude of 500 miles (800 km) and has a mission lifetime of around 3.5 years. It is powerful and precise enough to form accurate measurements of a planet's radius, as well as determining the likely density and internal structure.* The mission also provides unique targets for more detailed studies of exoplanet atmospheres by the next generation of telescopes now being built, such as the ground-basedEuropean Extremely Large Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope.
Credit: University of Bern/CERN
Sales of electric and hybrid trucks reach 100,000 annually
Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide.* This includes hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, battery-electric and plug-in electric power take-off variations.
Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide.* This includes hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, battery-electric and plug-in electric power take-off variations.
Between 2011 and 2017, the overall truck market grew at roughly 4% per year. However, the market for hybrid and electric trucks grew almost 12 times as fast, at 47%. This was partly in response to oil and gas volatility, but was also due to significant technology improvements and, in particular, the falling price of batteries.
The overall cost of hybrid and electric vehicles remains the largest barrier to full market proliferation, but this has improved markedly in recent years, with new battery technology that increases a vehicle's speed and range.*Progress has also been made in the time it takes to recharge,* as well as the availability of electric charging points (now 7.7 million worldwide).* Motors are also becoming available without the need for rare earth metals.*
The largest market for these trucks is still Asia Pacific, with around 41,000 being sold each year. Slowly catching up is North America, where the number is approaching 26,000. As oil prices increase, hybrid and electric trucks will eventually become more cost-effective than fossil fuel-driven ones. Technology in general continues to reshape the shipping industry. Manufacturers are looking into the possibility of driverless, fully automated vehicles, for example.*
The environmental benefits of going electric are potentially huge, as trucking makes up a significant portion of transport emissions, which cumulatively produce over 13% of the world's CO2 emissions.*
Electronic paper is seeing widespread use
This technology has been in development for over a decade* and is now seeing widespread use.* It works by combining organic, thin film transistors (TFT) with organic, electroluminescent displays. This produces flexible, paper-thin devices barely 0.3mm in thickness.
This technology has been in development for over a decade* and is now seeing widespread use.* It works by combining organic, thin film transistors (TFT) with organic, electroluminescent displays. This produces flexible, paper-thin devices barely 0.3mm in thickness.
Early applications included the first e-readers, but more sophisticated products have now emerged, some capable of running high-quality video. Ultra-thin smartphones, clothing and textiles with electronic displays, video ID cards, video leaflets, road signs that are self-illuminating, video instructions on food and other packaging - these are just some of the items to feature this technology.
Further development leads to much greater contrast ratio - resembling printed paper more than a screen (the latter is hard to see in direct sunlight). This technology also marks a step towards the paperless office, which in turn will reduce deforestation.
Traditional newspapers are becoming obsolete
The Internet has continued to erode the market share held by other forms of media. Since passing television as the primary source of news reporting in developed nations,* it has taken on more and more functions.
The Internet has continued to erode the market share held by other forms of media. Since passing television as the primary source of news reporting in developed nations,* it has taken on more and more functions.
The vast array of sources now found online - coupled with growing advancements in mobile and other technologies - is heavily impacting the ratings for mainstream news stations. Online videos, blogs and web series are now seriously competing with the best and most watched TV shows.
Capital-intensive overheads, together with slumping ad sales, have been further contributory factors in the decline of large media companies. A number of newspaper corporations have already gone under, while others - including the New York Times and the Daily Telegraph - have been forced to transition to a digital form, in some cases at great monetary loss.*
Slowly, newspapers throughout the developed world are becoming financially unsustainable and going out of print. The United States is leading this trend, where the collapse of the traditional newspaper has been most obvious. Following close behind are several countries in Europe. The UK and Iceland are the first in which newspapers begin to fall out of use. While physical news is still present in these countries, it is very sparse.
Newspapers will become obsolete in Australia by 2022, followed by Asia and South America, and finally Africa and the remaining countries beyond 2040.*
Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care
Having been demonstrated in mice,* bioengineered tooth regeneration is becoming available to humans. Using a combination of stem cells, scaffold material and signaling molecules, a fully functional and living tooth can be regrown in around two months - complete with roots, inner pulp and outer enamel.
Having been demonstrated in mice,* bioengineered tooth regeneration is becoming available to humans. Using a combination of stem cells, scaffold material and signaling molecules, a fully functional and living tooth can be regrown in around two months - complete with roots, inner pulp and outer enamel.
Until now, dental implant therapies had required pre-existing, high quality bone structures for supporting the artificial implants. Full reconstruction of natural, healthy teeth in patients without adequate bone support is therefore now possible. Fillings and dentures are becoming obsolete as a result, improving the health and well-being of millions of people.*
Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size
Compared with 2010, the cosmetic surgery industry has more than doubled in size by now.* Aesthetic laser and light therapies remained the fastest growing areas, with rejuvenation treatments close behind. PurTox was also introduced as a competitor to Botox, which uses a purer form of botulinum toxin, can treat a wider area of wrinkles (thus requiring fewer injections) and lasts longer. A number of other new procedures became available too.
China and India - where disposable incomes rose significantly during recent years - helped to boost the market,*while in developed nations, social pressures still appeared to overshadow financial ones in some circles.
This allowed the cosmetic surgery industry to do relatively well in the early years of the economic downturn. However, it is becoming more and more frowned upon now, especially in the West, as the majority of the population struggles to obtain basic necessities, let alone luxuries. Indeed, excess of any kind is being more vilified as time goes by, with such practices increasingly the preserve of the wealthy.
The world's first HIV vaccine is commercially available
HIV/AIDS was first characterised in 1983. By the early 2010s, the virus had killed over 28 million people worldwide, and 34 million people were living with the infection. Although a cure remained elusive, antiretroviral treatments were able to slow the progression of the disease and provide sufferers with a near-normal life expectancy. However, while antiretroviral treatments reduced the risk of death, these medications were expensive and often associated with side effects.
In 2012, a vaccine known as SAV001 – which had previous success in animal subjects – began Phase 1 human trials in London, Ontario. This randomised, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled study used a ground-breaking technique involving a genetically modified, killed whole-virus vaccine. Prior to this, other experimental vaccines had either used subunits of the virus or relied on genetically modified non-HIV viruses to carry an HIV-like genetic sequence.
SAV001 was administered to infected men and women aged 18 to 50. Results from the trials showed that patients experienced no adverse effects – no local reactions from the injections, or any signs, symptoms, or reactions to any potential toxicities – while significantly boosting immunity.*
With proven safety and tolerability in humans, the experimental vaccine progressed to Phase II and Phase III trials, with similar success. By 2017, it is becoming commercially available.*
A new treatment for prostate cancer
Prostate cancer is a form of cancer that develops in the prostate, a gland in the male reproductive system. It can cause pain, difficulty in urinating, problems during sexual intercourse, or erectile dysfunction. It can also metastasize (spread) from the prostate to other parts of the body, particularly the bones and lymph nodes. Globally, it is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related death in men (in the USA it is the second). It tends to develop in men over the age of 50 and is most common in the developed world.
In 2012, a study was conducted on a potential new treatment. This used High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) to vibrate tissues the size of a grain of rice, heating them to about 80-90°C (176-194°F). This effectively killed the cancerous cells, in a highly localised area without damage to neighbouring healthy tissues. Because of the beam's extreme precision, there were few reported side effects. Although one in ten were left impotent, this was far less than traditional treatment methods, and none of the volunteers were left incontinent. 95% of study participants were free of cancer after 12 months.
A larger trial was conducted, with similar success. By 2017, the treatment is offered routinely on the NHS* and in many other countries, leading to a marked improvement in survival rates and patient comfort. The procedure is fast and most patients are back home within 24 hours.*
Teleportation of simple molecules
For a number of years, scientists had been teleporting individual atoms and particles of light. By this date, the first molecules such as water and carbon dioxide have been teleported. This will be followed in the 2030s by complex organic molecules such as DNA and proteins.*
Source: Futuretimeline
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